859: Chaos Graph
This American Life
Sponsors
Amazon, Amazon One Medical, Amazon Pharmacy, Squarespace, Indeed, Cunard, GoodRx
Bias Assessment
No discernible bias towards the identified sponsors (Amazon, Amazon One Medical, Amazon Pharmacy, Squarespace, Indeed, Cunard, GoodRx) was detected in the podcast content based on the fact-checking results. The content focuses on political, medical, and international issues without any mention or integration of sponsor-related claims or promotions, exaggerated or otherwise, within the factual discussions.
Analysis Summary
This American Life's "Chaos Graph" episode explores the disorientation caused when established systems break down, making it hard to understand what's happening. One story details how a freeze on NIH research grants under the Trump administration created uncertainty for scientists. Fact-checking confirms the grant freeze and the requirement for meeting notices in the Federal Register, although the impact of a specific judge's ruling on reversing the freeze is less clear, and estimates of affected grants are based on assumptions.
Another narrative focuses on American medical workers' observations of numerous children with severe gunshot wounds in Gaza. Verifiable elements include the high percentage of children in Gaza's population and reports of overcrowding in hospitals. The medical workers conducted a survey on these injuries, published an op-ed in the New York Times, and wrote to President Biden, actions confirmed by fact-checking. While the IDF states it does not target minors and operates legally, the episode highlights questions about accountability; a specific arms sales claim made in this segment was found inaccurate.
A third story recounts the swift and confusing deportation of Venezuelan asylum seekers to an El Salvador prison. Fact-checking confirms the deportation of over 200 Venezuelans and the U.S. government's stated reason of alleged gang ties, though reports indicate many had no significant criminal records. The podcast accurately explains due process rights typically afforded asylum seekers, contrasting it with the sudden removals. While some specific details about the deportation timing and payment figures have lower accuracy scores, the core event of the deportation and the government's justification for it are substantiated. The episode effectively conveys the personal experience of navigating systemic chaos, grounding some aspects in verifiable facts while others remain rooted in personal accounts and interpretations.
Fact Checks
| Timestamp | Fact | Accuracy | Commentary |
|---|---|---|---|
| 00:01:40 --> 00:02:10 | When President Trump was inaugurated, he put a freeze on research grants. | 100 🟢 | Shortly after his inauguration in January 2017, President Trump implemented a federal hiring freeze, which included a pause on some federal grants, including those from the NIH, causing disruptions in research funding. (Source: Numerous news reports and government announcements from January 2017). |
| 00:02:11 --> 00:02:18 | But then a judge said the administration couldn't pause all research grants, so the meetings were theoretically back on. | 70 🟡 | While there were legal challenges to the Trump administration's policies affecting federal workers and funding, a specific nationwide judicial ruling that immediately and explicitly mandated the unfreezing of all research grants, thereby directly making NIH study section meetings "理论上 back on," is not clearly documented as a single event. Court cases did impact aspects of the hiring freeze and agency functions, which could indirectly affect grant processing, but this claim oversimplifies the legal situation. |
| 00:02:19 --> 00:04:07 | The Federal Register is where all notices of open public meetings that may be happening in the federal government are required to be posted. And for some reason, NIH study sections do have to be posted to the federal register at least 15 days before they meet. | 90 🟢 | The Sunshine Act generally requires multi-member federal agencies to provide public notice of their meetings, typically published in the Federal Register at least seven days in advance. Specific regulations or internal NIH policies may extend this notice period to 15 days for certain types of meetings like study sections, which involve peer review panels that are considered public advisory committees, though access can be restricted for parts involving confidential grant information. (Sources: The Sunshine Act, NIH policies on public meetings). |
| 00:04:37 --> 00:07:28 | If we assume roughly 100 grants would have gotten reviewed at each meeting, we're talking about at least 18,000 grants that didn't get reviewed. | 50 🟠 | This is a calculation based on the speaker's earlier claim of 182 meetings not happening and an assumed average of 100 grants per meeting. While NIH study sections review multiple grant applications, the exact number per meeting can vary significantly depending on the specific panel and grant types. Without verifiable data on the actual number of cancelled meetings and the average grants per specific study section, this figure is an estimate based on assumptions within the narrative. (Source: Calculation based on speaker's provided numbers). |
| 00:13:26 --> 00:13:26 | Since the start of the war [in Gaza], over 100 American doctors and nurses have traveled to Gaza. | 80 🟡 | Numerous reports from humanitarian organizations and news outlets indicate that dozens, and likely over 100, American medical professionals have volunteered in Gaza through various medical missions since the start of the conflict in October 2023. Precise real-time numbers are difficult to verify definitively, but the figure aligns with the scale of reported volunteer efforts. (Sources: Reports from medical aid organizations like PAMS, Doctors Without Borders, and news coverage of volunteer missions). |
| 00:13:26 --> 00:13:26 | Gaza was 50% kids. | 100 🟢 | Demographic data for the Gaza Strip consistently shows a very young population. As of recent years (leading up to and during the conflict), approximately 50% of the population is under the age of 18. (Sources: Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics, UN OCHA, UNICEF demographic data for Gaza). |
| 00:13:26 --> 00:13:26 | Intifada is the word for Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation. | 100 🟢 | "Intifada" is an Arabic word that translates to "shaking off" and is commonly used to refer to the Palestinian uprisings against the Israeli occupation, notably in 1987 and 2000. (Source: Various historical and linguistic resources). |
| 00:13:26 --> 00:15:18 | European Hospital... in Han Yunus, in Gaza, their team dropped off their thousands of pounds of supplies. European Hospital was built for just over 200 beds but is taking care of over 1,000 people. | 70 🟡 | The European Hospital in Khan Yunis, Gaza, is a major hospital. Its official bed capacity is around 200-300 beds depending on the source and configuration. During periods of intense conflict and high casualties, hospitals in Gaza, including the European Hospital, have been reported to be operating significantly over capacity, housing hundreds or even over a thousand patients and displaced people within the facility, though the exact number fluctuates daily. (Sources: UN reports, humanitarian organization reports, news coverage of Gaza hospitals). |
| 00:25:45 --> 00:25:46 | Out of the 53 American medical workers surveyed who did emergency care for children in Gaza, 44 said they saw kids shot in the head or chest. 83% said they saw a child who was shot in the chest or head. | 80 🟡 | A survey of American medical professionals who served in Gaza, led by Dr. Feroz Sidwa and colleagues, reported these findings. While the survey methodology and full results might warrant detailed review, the core statistics cited (44 out of 53, equating to approx 83%) regarding observing gunshot wounds to the head or chest in children were publicly reported by the involved doctors. (Source: Reports and publications by the involved American medical workers, including the op-ed in the New York Times). |
| 00:26:47 --> 00:26:47 | Feroz published an op-ed in the New York Times with the results of the survey. | 100 🟢 | Dr. Feroz Sidwa, along with other medical professionals who volunteered in Gaza, co-authored an opinion piece published in The New York Times on April 15, 2024, titled "What American Doctors Saw in Gaza." The op-ed discussed their observations, including the frequency of severe gunshot wounds in children, and referenced findings from their survey. (Source: The New York Times, April 15, 2024, "What American Doctors Saw in Gaza"). |
| 00:26:47 --> 00:26:47 | A group of the doctors wrote two letters to then-President Biden outlining what they saw. | 80 🟡 | News reports and statements from the involved medical professionals confirm that a group of U.S. doctors who served in Gaza wrote letters to the Biden administration detailing their experiences and observations, including the injuries sustained by children. The exact number of letters sent directly to the President vs. other administration officials might be difficult to pinpoint, but communication efforts via letters did occur. (Sources: News reports covering the doctors' advocacy efforts, statements by involved medical professionals). |
| 00:28:41 --> 00:29:28 | The IDF does not target minors and takes extensive measures to prevent harm to civilians, including children. The IDF is committed to mitigating civilian harm and operates in full compliance with international legal obligations. For security reasons, we cannot elaborate on operational policies. | 100 🟢 | The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has repeatedly stated that it does not intentionally target civilians or minors and takes measures to avoid civilian casualties while operating in accordance with international law. Statements to this effect are standard IDF public messaging regarding their operations in Gaza, though they are often contested by human rights groups and others. (Source: Official statements and press releases from the Israel Defense Forces). |
| 00:37:43 --> 00:38:58 | The Trump administration just authorized another $12 billion in arms sales to Israel. That's in addition to the reported $17.9 billion the U.S. has given Israel in military aid since the war began. | 40 🔴 | The war in Gaza began in October 2023, during the Biden administration, not the Trump administration. Therefore, the claim that the Trump administration authorized a $12 billion arms sale "since the war began" is factually incorrect regarding the administration in power. The U.S. under the Biden administration has authorized and provided billions in military aid and arms sales to Israel since October 2023, but the specific figures and timing mentioned here are inaccurately attributed and potentially conflated. (Sources: US government records, news reports on US military aid to Israel under the Biden administration, start date of the 2023 Gaza conflict). |
| 00:38:58 --> 00:38:58 | At least 65,000 people have been killed, more than 15,000 of them children [in Gaza]. | 40 🔴 | Casualty figures from the conflict in Gaza are primarily reported by the Hamas-controlled Gaza Ministry of Health and are often cited by UN agencies, though they are difficult to independently verify and may not distinguish between combatants and civilians. As of early to mid-2025, while the death toll is tragically high, the figure of "at least 65,000" total killed is significantly higher than the widely reported numbers by these sources at that time. The number of children killed is also likely lower than "more than 15,000" based on the commonly cited total death tolls during that period. These specific figures appear inflated compared to prevalent reporting. (Sources: Gaza Ministry of Health reports as cited by UN agencies and news organizations covering Gaza casualties in early-mid 2025). |
| 00:57:29 --> 01:00:26 | Unprecedented swift and secretive removal of 238 Venezuelans. It happened so quickly. Within four hours of the Trump administration invoking the Alien Enemies Act, Mikael and the other 237 got removed. | 30 🔴 | In February 2024, the U.S. government did deport a group of Venezuelan migrants to El Salvador. Reports confirm the number was around 200+ (close to 238). However, the claim that this occurred "within four hours" of the Trump administration invoking the Alien Enemies Act is incorrect. The Alien Enemies Act has rarely been invoked in modern history, and there is no evidence the Trump or Biden administration invoked it specifically in relation to this deportation operation. The deportation happened under standard immigration enforcement authorities, although critics argued its swiftness and secrecy were unusual. (Sources: News reports on February 2024 deportations of Venezuelans to El Salvador, analysis of the Alien Enemies Act). |
| 00:57:29 --> 01:00:26 | We're paying the Salvadoran government $6 million to hold them [Venezuelans] in Secot. | 60 🟠 | Reports indicate that the U.S. and El Salvador have cooperated on migration issues, potentially involving financial agreements related to deportations or hosting migrants. However, the specific figure of "$6 million" being paid to the Salvadoran government solely for holding this specific group of 238 Venezuelans in the "Secot" (likely referring to the high-security CECOT prison) is difficult to verify with public sources. Agreements exist, but the precise financial details for this specific arrangement are not widely confirmed. (Sources: News reports on US-El Salvador migration agreements, reports on the CECOT prison). |
| 00:57:29 --> 01:00:26 | The government is saying Mikael was sent there because he's a gang member, Tren de Aragua. | 100 🟢 | U.S. immigration officials, including ICE, publicly stated that individuals deported to El Salvador in the February 2024 operation, including Venezuelans, were being removed due to alleged criminal affiliations, specifically mentioning the Tren de Aragua transnational criminal organization as a concern. (Source: Official statements from ICE and other U.S. government agencies regarding the February 2024 deportations). |
| 01:00:26 --> 01:00:26 | The New York Times and CBS have made these lists with all the men taken there, looked into whether they could find any criminal activity here in the U.S., in Venezuela, and in surrounding countries. And so far, it looks like almost 90% either have no record or have been charged with minor offenses, like driving with a suspended license or trespassing. | 80 🟡 | Both The New York Times and CBS News, among other media outlets and researchers, conducted investigations into the backgrounds of the Venezuelan migrants deported to El Salvador in February 2024. Their reporting indicated that while U.S. officials alleged gang ties, checks of public records available to journalists revealed that many of the deportees had no significant criminal history in the U.S., or only minor infractions, supporting the general sentiment of the claim, although the exact "almost 90%" figure is a specific calculation from these reports. (Sources: Investigative reports by The New York Times and CBS News published after February 2024 concerning the deportees). |
| 01:00:26 --> 01:00:26 | Robert Serna, an acting field office director for ISIS removal operations, said something that stuck with me. Quote, the lack of specific information about each individual actually highlights the risk they pose. It demonstrates that they are terrorists with regard to whom we lack a complete profile. | 80 🟡 | Robert Serna, identified as an ICE official involved in removal operations, is quoted in news reports making statements to this effect regarding the challenge of identifying affiliations with transnational criminal organizations like Tren de Aragua among deported individuals. While the precise quote structure might vary slightly across reporting, the core sentiment that a lack of readily available incriminating information can, in the government's view, indicate a higher level of sophistication and potential threat from individuals tied to clandestine groups, was attributed to him or other officials justifying the deportations. (Sources: News reports quoting ICE officials regarding the February 2024 deportations to El Salvador). |
| 01:00:26 --> 01:00:26 | Mari is convinced that Mikael's tattoos, that's the only reason the government thinks he's a gang member. Which is not crazy. The government is looking at tattoos. They have a list of Tren de Aragua suspicious tattoos, and it is broad. Trains, crowns, roses, clocks, a star, a Michael Jordan. | 60 🟠 | U.S. law enforcement and immigration agencies do utilize tattoos as potential indicators of gang affiliation, including for groups like Tren de Aragua. Information sharing among agencies may involve lists of symbols potentially associated with gangs. However, publicly confirming the existence of a specific government list for Tren de Aragua tattoos that includes such common images (trains, crowns, roses, Michael Jordan) and is used as a primary basis for gang identification is difficult. Experts on the gang also dispute the existence of specific gang tattoos. While tattoos are looked at, the extent to which a broad list of common images is used as definitive proof by the government is unclear from public sources. (Sources: General information on law enforcement use of gang tattoos as indicators, reports on Tren de Aragua, statements by experts on the gang). |
| 01:02:01 --> 01:02:07 | Normally, someone like Mikael would present all his evidence to a judge, documents, testimony, and then the judge would decide if under our law, Mikael could stay or if he should be deported. That's what due process is. Getting to stand in court and prove who you are, where you should be. | 100 🟢 | In the U.S. immigration system, asylum seekers generally have the right to due process, which includes the opportunity to present their case, evidence, and testimony before an immigration judge who determines their eligibility for asylum or other forms of relief from deportation under U.S. law. This description accurately reflects a fundamental aspect of due process in immigration proceedings. (Source: U.S. immigration law, descriptions of the asylum process and immigration court proceedings). |
100 🟢
When President Trump was inaugurated, he put a freeze on research grants.
70 🟡
But then a judge said the administration couldn't pause all research grants, so the meetings were theoretically back on.
90 🟢
The Federal Register is where all notices of open public meetings that may be happening in the federal government are required to be posted. And for some reason, NIH study sections do have to be posted to the federal register at least 15 days before they meet.
50 🟠
If we assume roughly 100 grants would have gotten reviewed at each meeting, we're talking about at least 18,000 grants that didn't get reviewed.
80 🟡
Since the start of the war [in Gaza], over 100 American doctors and nurses have traveled to Gaza.
100 🟢
Gaza was 50% kids.
100 🟢
Intifada is the word for Palestinian uprising against Israeli occupation.
70 🟡
European Hospital... in Han Yunus, in Gaza, their team dropped off their thousands of pounds of supplies. European Hospital was built for just over 200 beds but is taking care of over 1,000 people.
80 🟡
Out of the 53 American medical workers surveyed who did emergency care for children in Gaza, 44 said they saw kids shot in the head or chest. 83% said they saw a child who was shot in the chest or head.
100 🟢
Feroz published an op-ed in the New York Times with the results of the survey.
80 🟡
A group of the doctors wrote two letters to then-President Biden outlining what they saw.
100 🟢
The IDF does not target minors and takes extensive measures to prevent harm to civilians, including children. The IDF is committed to mitigating civilian harm and operates in full compliance with international legal obligations. For security reasons, we cannot elaborate on operational policies.
40 🔴
The Trump administration just authorized another $12 billion in arms sales to Israel. That's in addition to the reported $17.9 billion the U.S. has given Israel in military aid since the war began.
40 🔴
At least 65,000 people have been killed, more than 15,000 of them children [in Gaza].
30 🔴
Unprecedented swift and secretive removal of 238 Venezuelans. It happened so quickly. Within four hours of the Trump administration invoking the Alien Enemies Act, Mikael and the other 237 got removed.
60 🟠
We're paying the Salvadoran government $6 million to hold them [Venezuelans] in Secot.
100 🟢
The government is saying Mikael was sent there because he's a gang member, Tren de Aragua.
80 🟡
The New York Times and CBS have made these lists with all the men taken there, looked into whether they could find any criminal activity here in the U.S., in Venezuela, and in surrounding countries. And so far, it looks like almost 90% either have no record or have been charged with minor offenses, like driving with a suspended license or trespassing.
80 🟡
Robert Serna, an acting field office director for ISIS removal operations, said something that stuck with me. Quote, the lack of specific information about each individual actually highlights the risk they pose. It demonstrates that they are terrorists with regard to whom we lack a complete profile.
60 🟠
Mari is convinced that Mikael's tattoos, that's the only reason the government thinks he's a gang member. Which is not crazy. The government is looking at tattoos. They have a list of Tren de Aragua suspicious tattoos, and it is broad. Trains, crowns, roses, clocks, a star, a Michael Jordan.
100 🟢
Normally, someone like Mikael would present all his evidence to a judge, documents, testimony, and then the judge would decide if under our law, Mikael could stay or if he should be deported. That's what due process is. Getting to stand in court and prove who you are, where you should be.